The Russian elite started talking about the revolution and the change of power

Representatives of the Russian elite in the eighth month of the war with Ukraine started talking about a possible change of power. This has happened for the first time in 22 years of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule as he has driven the country into a hopeless situation, The Washington Post writes, citing Russian government sources.

“We started to enter a revolutionary situation. Everyone is waiting for something different than what is happening now – a different leadership, a different war. The Hawks want tougher action. “Doves” do not want war at all. It is time for a change in the political system. But how this will happen, I don’t know, ”said a senior government official on condition of anonymity.

“Everyone is completely upset. The mood is very bad,” confirmed a major Russian businessman. According to him, the economy is suffering from what is happening, and claims that Russia will be able to redirect its exports to China and India have proved untenable. Against the backdrop of tightening sanctions, every bad news from the front becomes a new blow to the economy, another interlocutor from the business elite confirmed.

“No one is happy with the status quo,” the Russian official explained. “It is clear that a military or political victory is impossible. But losing is also impossible. It turns into a chess situation known as zugzwang, where each step is worse than the next, and it is impossible not to move,” he says.

Back in the summer there was optimism in the government, notes another official. The authorities believed that “we will turn everything upside down and find a way out,” but now there is no trace of this attitude. “People see that there is no future,” he notes. The mobilization has already hit Vladimir Putin’s approval rating, which fell from 83% to 77% in one week, something that hasn’t happened since the pension reform. The coffins that came from the front will only worsen the situation, the Russian businessman believes.

“In a few months, there will be a very negative trend in Russia: a deterioration in public sentiment,” the entrepreneur says. To change the situation at the front, Putin had only a tactical nuclear strike in his arsenal. But, according to the Russian businessman, China could block such an escalation. “This Pandora’s Box [китайцы] they don’t want to open it,” he said.

“It is still a war of attrition until one side can continue the war,” says the businessman. Sanctions begin to take a toll on the Russian economy, with an oil embargo and price ceiling on Russian oil taking effect in December. Sergei Guriev, vice-rector of Sciences Po University in Paris, said Putin would “run out of money” by the end of the year. “He needs money to pay Iran and North Korea for weapons. But in December we will see a completely new reality,” Guriev said.

Against this backdrop, former Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin spoke to the state agency RIA Novosti calling for a repeat of the 1917 revolution and for Putin to remain at the head of Russia until 2030. “We must not repeat 1917, when Nicholas II’s inner circle, in fact, betrayed him. I believe that Putin, whether he wants to or not, will have to bear his cross before we can really make real peace,” Stepashin said.

According to him, during the war in Ukraine it became “quite obvious that there can be no replacement, especially in a situation of partial mobilization.” In 2020, Putin amended the Russian constitution to allow him to remain in power until 2036.